 US retailers upgrade import fore, but maintain caution |
Source |
American Shipper |
Post Date |
07/13/2020 |
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US retailers on Wednesday slightly upgraded their expectations for imports for the six-month period from May through October on the belief consumers will step up purchases, albeit slowly.
The Global Port Tracker, published monthly by the National Retail Federation (NRF) with Hackett Associates, projects total imports for the period will be 9.94 million TEU; that¡¯s 0.7 percent higher than in its June fore.
However, despite a slightly improved fore for US imports due to the phased reing of parts of the economy following store closures linked to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), retailers are being conservative in their purchase orders with Asian factories, pointing to a dismal peak shipping season compared with recent years.
¡°The outlook for imports is slowly improving, but these are still some of the lowest numbers we¡¯ve seen in years,¡± Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at NRF, said in a statement.
US containerized imports from Asia in the first half of 2020 are projected to be down 9.3 percent from the first six months of 2019. That is slightly better than the 10 percent decline Global Port Tracker projected in June.
Imports from Asia declined 9.8 percent in January through May from the year-ago period, according to the latest numbers from PIERS, a JOC.com sister company within IHS Markit. GTA Foreing, which is part of IHS Markit, fores that US imports from Asia in calar year 2020 will decline 7.6 percent from last year.
Rising virus numbers threaten economic recovery
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett noted that some states are ning to pull back on store and restaurant ings due to the recent surge in COVID-19 cases.
¡°We¡¯re starting to go out to eat and buy clothing again, but how sustainable is that? The danger is that the rising number of virus infections is leading to renewed restrictions, which may cause demand to weaken again,¡± he said.
Global Port Tracker fores continued year-over-year declines in imports through November: July is fore to be down 14.1 percent, August down 13.3 percent, September down 12.3 percent, October down 9.9 percent, and November down 0.6 percent. October is likely to be the busiest month of the July-October peak-shipping season, but it will still be the lowest volume of imports for a peak-season month since September 2014, according to Global Port Tracker.
Although 2019 was the second-highest year on record for imports, containerized imports were only 0.8 percent higher than in 2018, due primarily to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in the US-China trade war, Global Port Tracker said.
Global Port Tracker provides fores for the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf C
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