 U.S. Container Imports Face Prolonged Decline in 2026 |
Source |
American Shipper |
Post Date |
12/09/2025 |
|
Year-over-year declines in import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports are expected to persist into 2026, driven by ongoing tariff volatility and shifting trade policy, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
The impact of rising tariffs continues to reverberate through global supply chains, with container shipping demand to the U.S. weakening significantly in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into early 2026. ?e are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,?said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. ?ontainer shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.?
According to the Global Port Tracker report, U.S. ports handled 2.07 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in October, down 7.9% year-over-year. The slowdown is expected to intensify, with November projected at 1.91 million TEU (down 11.6%) and December fore at 1.86 million TEU (down 12.7%). December would mark the slowest month since June 2023, following July? peak of 2.39 million TEU.
While November and December are traditionally slower months, the steep year-over-year declines reflect multiple factors. Imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes, and many retailers frontloaded cargo earlier this year to avoid tariffs. This strategic timing has left store shelves well-stocked for the holiday season, but d a cargo vacuum in subsequent months.
?tores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,?said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. ?egardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.?
The trade policy landscape remains fluid. The administration recently reduced tariffs on some food products, but the future of other tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act rests with a Supreme Court challenge currently under consideration. Even if tariffs are struck down, the administration is likely to seek reinstatement under native trade authorities.
The full year 2025 is now fore at 25.2 million TEU, down 1.4% from 2024? 25.5 million TEU. This represents an improved outlook compared to earlier projections, which had anticipated a 5.6% decline. Looking ahead, 2026 presents continued challenges, with January fore at 2 million TEU (down 10.3%), February at 1.86 million TEU (down 8.5%), March at 1.79 million TEU (down 16.8%), and April at 1.97 million TEU (down 10.9%).
Despite the maritime sector headwinds, the NRF is foreing record holiday sales exceeding $1 trillion for the first time, up between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024. The divergence between strong consumer demand and declining import volumes highlights the effectiveness of retailers?frontloading strategies and their ability to absorb costs in the face of tariff pressures.
As the maritime industry navigates this period of uncertainty, the consensus among industry experts is clear: tariff policy will remain the dominant factor shaping cargo flows well into 2026, with container shipping markets continuing to adjust to reduced demand across both coasts.
|
|
|
|
